Stats We Believe

Golden State Warriors Promise "Change You Can't Believe In"

By Julian Quisquater

 

Don’t get me wrong, Barack Obama’s a stand-up guy as far as I’m concerned. I voted for him. But you’ve got to admit the man can sweet talk the socks off a disillusioned constituency like nobody’s business. He’s got to be the greatest salesman of CHANGE the world has ever known.

 

However, I did not believe that the simple “idea” of CHANGE would magically make all of our problems disappear. Throngs of people across this country followed Obama’s crusade to regain democratic control of the White House without having the slightest idea of even the basic principles of his political ideology. They heard CHANGE and bought it faster than they could say ShamWow.

 

Golden State Warriors fans are in serious danger of buying into the same promise, but they are hearing it from George W. Bush.

 

What? Let me explain.

Golden State Warriors Foreign Press: San Antonio Edition

By Julian Quisquater

 

In the latest installment of GSW Foreign Press, we’ll take a look at all the wonderful things San Antonio Express beat writer Jeff McDonald had to say about our beloved Warriors.

 

Quote #1: “The Spurs accomplished their goal Monday, routing the perpetually short-handed and oft-hapless Warriors 101-72 at Oracle Arena.”

 

Perpetually short-handed? Ok, I’ll give him that one. Oft-hapless? That one too. It’s this next gem that kind of gets me riled up though.

 

Quote #2: “Duncan was out-hustling a thicket of Warriors for an offensive rebound. Couple that with a collection of Golden State players who seemed like they’d rather be across the parking lot watching the A’s and Red Sox, and the result was the Spurs’ most decisive victory of the season.”

I resent that Jeff.

 

First of all, baseball is so boring that no one would rather WATCH a baseball game than PLAY in a basketball game. The unbearably slow pace of "America's Pasttime" makes watching Congress deliberate on CSPAN look like the Super Bowl. You should know because watching the Spurs drawn out half-court sets is about as close as hoop comes to the mundane tedium of baseball. The Warriors may suck but at least they're fun to watch. 

Second, the Warriors are many things, but quitters they are not. Anthony Randolph and C.J. Watson played their hearts out last night, and you seem to be forgetting the fact that the Warriors started 2 rookies and a sophomore.

 

This game was essentially a team full of college-age kids against arguably the best NBA team of the last decade. Would you expect anything less than a decisive win against a 7-man rotation of players that could be Tim Duncan’s kids? If not, I don’t think that bodes too well for your precious Spurs in the playoffs.

 

Noticeably absent is McDonald’s sugarcoating of a good Anthony Randolph outing (24 PTS, 16 REB, 4 AST, 4 STL). It would have been nice to hear him heap praise on our savior, but it has become abundantly clear to me that this practice is most commonly reserved for writers who follow teams who have absolutely nothing else to cheer about. Like me…

Nellie does the Gangsta Boogie

By Julian Quisquater

 

Despite my general distaste for Al Harrington and his overblown belief in his own talent on a basketball court, for ONCE I actually agree with him.

 

Harrington recently stated that "Nellie's a gangsta," and "he just does whatever he wants." That sounds pretty spot on to me.

 

I don’t think I can name a coach in the NBA that has more power in an organization than Don Nelson does in Golden State. Come to think of it, the only person in any major sport in America that pulls more strings is Al Davis. Coincidence? Maybe there’s something in the Bay Area water that feeds monumental power trips.

As if Oakland doesn’t have enough problems to deal with after the tragic recent shootings of four police officers, now Warrior fans have to be subjected to the national media’s critique of their “gangsta” coach and his floundering team.

As frustrating as it is to read article after article highlighting the failing of the Warriors organization, the dead horse they keep beating is just that, dead.

 

No organization in basketball is in more turmoil right now than the Golden State Warriors. As a fan it’s tough to admit that but hey, sometimes you have to face the music.

 

The question then becomes, does our “gangta” coach make us less or more favorable to prospective free agents? Given our current salary cap situation I suppose it hardly matters…

Has Monta Ellis "Checked-Out" on the Warriors?

By Julian Quisquater

 

According to information acquired by StatsWeBelieve.com from an unnamed source in the Golden State Warriors organization, Monta Ellis has officially “checked-out” on his teammates.

 

Ellis has missed practice “at least once” (and possibly twice) in the last week, without alerting the team brass or coach Don Nelson of his whereabouts. Despite Ellis’ ongoing rehabilitation from ankle surgery, it wouldn’t surprise us to hear that he may miss a game or two down the stretch for disciplinary reasons rather than an injury concern.

 

If this information turns out to be substantiated, potential fines could follow, as well as more trade rumors throughout the off-season.

The Beard is Back in Golden Golden State

By Julian Quisquater

There have been a lot of disappointing moments in Warriorland this season, but why dwell on things that are out of our control?

 

One positive we can take away from 08-09 is that the void left by Baron Davis’ beard has officially been filled by the “Dance from France.”

Ronny Turiaf has surpassed even the most optimistic expectations when he signed what appeared to be a grossly inflated four-year $17 million contract.

 

His name has become synonymous with passion, and in addition to being the team’s unofficial cheerleader, he is also shot blocking his way into the hearts of Warrior fans.

Nellie and Mullin Snubbed By Basketball HOF! Fact or Fiction?

By Julian Quisquater

 

The politics of the Naismith Basketball Hall of Fame induction committee have always rooted me with a deep sense of curiosity and suspicion. For the life of me I can’t figure out why some people get in, some don’t, and why the number of inductees arbitrarily varies from year to year.

 

The 2009 class saw 5 members inducted (Michael Jordan, David Robinson, Jerry Sloan, John Stockton, and Vivian Stringer), which left little room for Warriors’ legends Don Nelson and Chris Mullin to slip in.

 

However, there aren’t a set number of inductees each year, as 2008 saw 7 members inducted to the Hall (Adrian Dantley, William Davidson, Patrick Ewing, Hakeem Olajuwon, Pat Riley, Cathy Rush, and Dick Vitale).

 

So why snub the Dubs?

Updated Team Stats

In the PDF below you will find up to date team based statistics for the Golden State Warriors. These stats are used as the foundation for many of the claims made in the columns section, and they are also a tool for you to use to draw interesting conclusions of your own. We encourage contributing writers to scour these stats for statistical anomalys that can be highlighted in guest columns.

We recently added texts boxes below the categories that highlight unusual trends and noteworthy statistical anomalies.

Click the link below to load the PDF

Download GSWarriors_2009_0405

The Free Anthony Randolph Movement

By Julian Quisquater

 

It truly amazes me that it took until the end of the season for the national media to finally take notice of Anthony Randolph. Bill Simmons has sent shock waves through the basketball community with his glowing praise of the Warriors first year freak show, but unfortunately Randolph is getting attention from everyone except the one guy that matters, Don Nelson.

On paper it appears that Randolph is getting an increase in playing time, but when you consider that the Warriors only have two serviceable big men active on their roster (Turiaf being the second), it’s more an act of necessity than anything else.

 

Randolph averaged 22 minutes a game in the month of March, but realistically that number should be 30+. The Warriors were mathematically eliminated from playoff contention weeks ago, so the only thing they can possibly play for is next season. Anthony Randolph IS next season.

How to Assess Porous Defense? Look at the 2-Pt FG %

By Rob Wilson

Are you like me… wondering what happened to the defense over the past 3 games after a stellar effort versus the San Antonio Spurs?  The W’s simply don’t play defense consistently.  Occasionally, they’re motivated defensively and can put together a decent effort.  But, not in the past 3 games.

Here’s what’s interesting statistically over the past 3 games.  The W’s opponent has shot 61.8% from 2-point range over the past 3 games (65.7% Dallas, 61.9% Denver, 57.4% Memphis).  For the season, the W’s opponents are shooting 49.4% from 2-point range. 

I believe that the dramatic differential highlighted above (61.8% 2-point range last 3 games versus a 49.4% season average) is reflective of Don Nelson’s infamous Matador Defense. 

Finally, take a look at the 3-point FG % for these same W’s opponents over the past three games (only 32.2%).  This below average 3-point FG % over the past three games simply highlights that when Monta Ellis or Jamal Crawford are allowing the opponents a straight bee-line to the bucket, a higher 3-point FG % is not needed to beat the Warriors.

Updated Team Stats

In the PDF below you will find up to date team based statistics for the Golden State Warriors. These stats are used as the foundation for many of the claims made in the columns section, and they are also a tool for you to use to draw interesting conclusions of your own. We encourage contributing writers to scour these stats for statistical anomalys that can be highlighted in guest columns.

Special thanks go out to "War Years" of the Golden State Warriors message board for his valuable feedback. His suggestions are viewable in the new PDF.

Click the link below to load the PDF

Download GSWarriors_2009_0330